Unraveling the influence of climate and land use change on ecological networks based on ecosystem services priority conservation areas

Climate change and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes have significantly impacted ecosystems. Ecological network construction aids in understanding ecosystem interactions, but current studies often overlook ecosystem service protection into network analysis. Identifying and integrating ecosystem service priority conservation areas (CPAs) into the ecological networks is crucial for bolstering ecosystem resilience and safeguarding human well-being. This study evaluates ecosystem services under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585) and identifies priority conservation areas as ecological sources on the Tibetan Plateau. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was employed to simulate land use changes under Economic Development, Ecological Protection, and Nature Development scenarios, incorporating resistance factors to build a comprehensive resistance surface. We constructed an ecological network using the least-cost path method and assessed key metrics including Average Betweenness Centrality, Average Closeness Centrality, and Average Degree. We also evaluated the robustness of the network. The study found PCAs concentrated in the southeastern, northern, and western edges of the Tibetan Plateau. Under SSP585 scenario, these areas expanded by 41.1 % compared to SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios, the network exhibited greater complexity and connectivity. However, over the long-term, the SSP585 scenarios poses a higher risk of network collapse, the network showed higher robustness, maintaining connectivity around 0.3 after random attacks and 0.15 after targeted attacks, while under SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios the networks were more vulnerable, with connectivity dropping below 0.1 under similar conditions. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between climate change, human activities, and ecological network dynamics, offering valuable guidance for sustainable land management and conservation policies. • Integrated priority conservation areas (PCAs) into ecological networks under climate and land use scenarios. • SSP585 scenario expanded PCAs, enhancing short-term connectivity but raising long-term fragmentation risk. • Robustness analysis showed networks resist random failures but collapse under targeted attacks. • Ecological network grounded in ecosystem services provides insights for resilient conservation planning.