Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption of middle-income groups: Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

Consumption is evidenced to play an increasing significant role accompanied by economic transition in China. Carbon emissions caused by consumption are becoming an important growth point of carbon emissions. The size of China's middle-income groups is growing and is expected to reach 60 % of the population in 2035. However, the amount of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption (ICEHCs) of middle-income groups and the effects of their drivers have not been quantitatively assessed. In response, this paper adopts input-output tables to calculate urban-rural middle-income groups' ICEHCs from 2012 to 2018, and uses structural decomposition analysis to determine the effects of drivers and sectors. Results are as follows: Urban-rural middle-income groups' ICEHCs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) are increasing and its differences are significant, and present a spatial pattern of high in the eastern region while low in the western region. S22 (Production and Supply of Electric Power, Steam and Hot Water) becomes the main sector of carbon emissions, which accounts for about 70.00 % of the total middle-income groups' ICEHCs in 2018. Consumption pattern is the predominant driver for promoting urban-rural middle-income groups' ICEHCs, whereas production structure is the predominant restraining driver.