A simulation model to formulate Iso-lose curves for stem border and leaf rust incidence in wheat

Pest scenarios were framed for incidence of stem borer and leaf rust in wheat. presuming lowest to highest pest incidence at different growth stages of the crop. A Crop simulation model, Info Crop- wheat was coupled with damage mechanisms of stem borer (Scirpophaga incertulas) and leaf rust (Puccinia recondite). The model was calibrated and validated with the data of field experiments. The calibrated and validated model was then used for simulating various pest and disease scenarios at three locations viz Delhi, Barrackpore and Varanasi. Simulation results were used to devise iso-loss curves for stem borer and leaf rust individually and jointly for both pests. These curves showed combination of pest incidence and crop age, which resulted in same yield loss during different crop growth stages. These related pest damage levels to yield loss during various growth stages of the ‘crop. lso loss curves for stem borer revealed that crop became more prone to the pest with increasing crop age. Nitrogen application resulted in reduction of losses due to the pest up to 70-80 days after sowing (DAS). Likewise at Delhi and Varanasi, crop exhibited more proneness to rust incidence upto 60 DAS and nitrogen reduced losses due to disease. However crop showed more tolerance to disease with increasing crop age at Barrackpore. lso-loss curves for multiple pests (stem borer and leaf rust) were intermediates between the iso-loss curves for stem borer and leaf rust individually. These related pest damage levels to yield loss during various growth stages of the crop. Such curves can be used for pest monitoring and knowing the damage potential of pest population present on the crop at a given crop growth stage. Hence based on economic value of  different loss levels such curves can help in deciding the need for control measures. This would be useful in rationalizing pesticide application. These can also be used for monitoring activity of multiple pests on the crop.  Key words: lso-loss curve, leaf rust, simulation model, stem borer    REFERENCES  Aggarwal. P.K., Roetter R. and Kalra N.(2000). Land use anaiysis for sustainable food security, with an illustration for the state of Haryana. lRRl and IARI. Pudoc. Wageningen, Netherlands.  Aggarwal, P.K, Kalra. N.. Chander S. and Pathak, H. (2002). lnfocrop—A Generic Crop Growth Simulation Model (In Press).  Daryaei, M.G. (2002). Quantification of yield losses due to multiple pests in rice and wheat. Ph.D Dissertation, PG School, IARI, New Delhi, India.  Heong, K.L. (1990). Modeling in the analysis of pest management strategies. System simulation at IRRI, Manila, Philippines.  Kumar, P. (1998). Food demand and supply projection for India. IARI, New Delhi, 141 p.  Shane. W.W., Teng, P.S., Laney, A. and Cattanach. A. (1985). Management of Cercospora leafspot of of sugarbeets: Decision aids. North Dakota Farm Research, 43: 3-5.  Sharrna. A.K., Kumar, J. and Nagarajan, S. (1998). Disease management strategy in wheat. Indian Farming. 48: 51-53 & 64-69.  Singh, V.S. (1996). Pest Management in Cereal Crops. In Recent Advances in Indian Entomology (ed. Lal, O. P.). A P C Publication. New Delhi. pp. 311-316.  Surin, A., Arunyanart. P.. Rojanahusdin. W., Munkong, S., Dhitikiattipong, R. and Disthapom, S. (1991). Using empirical blast models to establish disease management recommendations in Thailand. In Rice Blast Modeling and Forecasting. IRRI, Los Bansos, pp.69-74.  Teng. P.S. (1988). Pest and Pest-loss Models. Agrotechnology Transfer. 4: 1-10.  Teng, P.S., Blackie, M.J. and Close, RC. (1978). Simulation modeling of plant diseases to rationalize fungicide use. Outlook on Agriclture, 9: 273-277.  Teng, P.S. and Savary, S. (1992). Implementing the systems approach in pest management. In System Approches for Agricultural. Development, Elsevier Applied Sci., New York, p. 309.  Youdeowei. A. and Service, M.W. (1986). Pest and Vector Management in the Tropics. ELBS. Singapore. p. 399.  Zadoks, J.C. (1984). EPIPRE a computer- based scheme for pest and disease control in wheat. In Cereal Production (E.J. Gallagher, Ed.), London , pp. 215- 225.  Zadoks, J.C. (1989). Development of farming systems-evaluation of the five year period 1980 - 1984. Pudoc, Wageningen. p. 90.