Should I stay or should I go? Migration expectations among youth in Icelandic fishing and farming communities

Social mobility presupposes geographical mobility in many rural areas. Migration decisions feature prominently in the lives of rural adolescents, and the viability of local communities often hangs in the balance. As in many other rural areas, the majority of adolescents in Icelandic fishing and farming communities expect to live somewhere else in the future. An analysis of national surveys in 1992 and 2003 reveal that perceptions of occupational opportunities are by far the strongest predictor of migration intentions, and they fully account for gender differences in this regard. Other significant predictors of wanting to stay include being raised in the community, parental support and parental control, and interest in working in the primary industry. Parental education is associated with increased migration intentions, but this effect operates through other factors. In the early 1990s, parental involvement in the primary industry and well-being in school predicted migration intentions, but these issues no longer appeared to be a factor in the early 2000s. Finally, adolescents who identify strongly with the local community and are more proud of their nationality are less likely to expect to migrate. These results are discussed in the context of changing social identities in an increasingly global culture.