TMFO-AGGRU: A Graph Convolutional Gated Recurrent Network for Metro Passenger Flow Forecasting

Accurately exploiting the spatial correlation of passenger flow related to the metro network is important for improving metro passenger flow prediction. In this paper, a novel metro passenger flow forecasting model termed TMFO-AGGRU is proposed based on parameter estimation optimization for a graph convolutional gated recurrent neural network. First, we model a graph convolutional gated recurrent neural network, which is capable of real-time spatial and temporal information training on the passenger flow at a target station. Second, we design graph convolution operations to replace the linear operations of gated recurrent neural networks. To fully utilize the weighted distribution of output data based on different traffic characteristics, we convert the adjacent static matrices into dynamic characteristic matrices using feature learning and construct the attention mechanism module. Last, an adaptive moth-flame optimization method based on T-variance is proposed in this paper to achieve dynamic optimization of structural parameters and to avoid affecting the accuracy of prediction due to improper parameter selection. Experimental results show that the proposed TMFO-AGGRU effectively improves the prediction accuracy and convergence speed, which outperforms traditional metro passenger flow prediction methods.