Caregiver unpredictability and the development of biobehavioral regulation during early childhood

Experiences of unpredictability can create significant disruptions for children’s psychosocial development. Despite growing evidence highlighting the importance of predictable caregiving in fostering long-term healthy development, there is still limited understanding of proximal unpredictability within caregiver–child relationships. This study extended prior research on caregivers’ sensory signal unpredictability with infants, by (1) developing an observational measure of caregiver affective and behavioral unpredictability in early childhood and (2) exploring its implications for preschoolers’ development of biobehavioral self-regulation. In this longitudinal study of 98 predominantly White 4-year-old children (50% female) and their mothers, greater caregiver affective and behavioral unpredictability was associated concurrently with greater respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) suppression (i.e., decrease in RSA) during the Day/Night inhibitory control task. Greater caregiver sensory signal unpredictability at 4 years predicted children’s greater RSA suppression during the Day/Night task 2 years later. Neither sensory signals nor affective or behavioral unpredictability were associated with children’s behavioral performance on the inhibitory control task. This study provides initial evidence that unpredictable caregiver signals appear to shape early, non-volitional processes that regulate arousal in novel situations, a central aspect of susceptibility to social withdrawal.