Exploring the path of inter-provincial industrial transfer and carbon transfer in China via combination of multi-regional input–output and geographically weighted regression model

Due to the adjustment of China's regional industrial structure, some industries, especially industrial industries, are gradually transferring to the mainland. This process is also accompanied by carbon transfer. However, few studies focus on the consistency of industrial transfer and carbon transfer path, and do not consider the role of environmental regulation. Based on the multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model, this study measures the industrial transfer and carbon transfer of 30 provinces in China, and compares the path of industrial transfer and carbon transfer. Considering the spatial differences of provinces, the GWR model is used to investigate the impact of industrial structure, energy intensity, urbanization and environmental regulation on carbon transfer. The results show that the eastern coastal region is the largest industrial outflow area and the largest carbon inflow area. The direction of industrial transfer and carbon transfer is inconsistent, indicating that there are other factors that affect carbon transfer. Environmental regulation is negatively correlated with net carbon outflow. Industrial structure, energy intensity and urbanization all contribute to carbon transfer. Among them, energy intensity has the greatest impact on carbon transfer, and the elastic coefficient is above 8. Therefore, it is suggested to strengthen technological innovation, increase the development and utilization of renewable energy, and realize the diversified utilization of energy resources.