Development and validation of a nomogram based on pretreatment dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI for the prediction of pathologic response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for triple-negative breast cancer

To develop a nomogram based on pretreatment dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). A total of 108 female patients with TNBC treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery between January 2017 and October 2020 were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into the primary cohort (n = 87) and validation cohort (n = 21) at a ratio of 4:1. The pretreatment DCE-MRI and clinicopathological features were reviewed and recorded. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of pCR in the primary cohort. A nomogram was developed based on the predictors, and the predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The validation cohort was used to test the predictive model. Tumor volume measured on DCE-MRI, time to peak (TTP), and androgen receptor (AR) status were identified as independent predictors of pCR. The AUCs of the nomogram were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.75–0.93) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.59–0.99) in the primary cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Pretreatment DCE-MRI could predict pCR after NAC in patients with TNBC. The nomogram can be used to predict the probability of pCR and may help individualize treatment. • Pretreatment DCE-MRI findings can predict pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. • A nomogram based on the independent predictors of tumor volume measured on DCE-MRI, time to peak, and androgen receptor status could help personalized cancer treatment in TNBC patients.