Ecosystem service multifunctionality of mixed conifer-broad-leaved forests under climate change and forest management based on matrix growth modelling

Climate change and forest management are recognized as pivotal factors influencing forest ecosystem services and thus multifunctionality. However, the magnitude and the relative importance of climate change and forest management effects on the multifunctionality remain unclear, especially for natural mixed forests. In this study, our objective is to address this gap by utilizing simulations of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models based on national forest inventory plot data. We evaluated the effects of seven management scenarios (combinations of various cutting methods and intensities) on the future provision of ecosystem services and multifunctionality in mixed conifer-broad-leaved forests in northeastern China, under four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and constant climate). Provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services were described by timber production, carbon storage, carbon sequestration, tree species diversity, deadwood volume, and the number of large living trees. Our findings indicated that timber production was significantly influenced by management scenarios, while tree species diversity, deadwood volume, and large living trees were impacted by both climate and management separately. Carbon storage and sequestration were notably influenced by both management and the interaction of climate and management. These findings emphasized the profound impact of forest management on ecosystem services, outweighing that of climate scenarios alone. We found no single management scenario maximized all six ecosystem service indicators. The upper story thinning by 5% intensity with 5-year interval (UST5) management strategy emerged with the highest multifunctionality, surpassing the lowest values by more than 20% across all climate scenarios. In conclusion, our results underlined the potential of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models as a decision support tool and provided recommendations for long-term strategies for multifunctional forest management under future climate change context. Ecosystem services and multifunctionality of forests could be enhanced by implementing appropriate management measures amidst a changing climate.