Leveraging Industry 4.0 technologies, AI-based supply chain analytics and circular economy practices for net-zero and sustainable supply chain performance: a moderated mediation model

Purpose This study aims to investigate how Industry 4.0 technologies, artificial intelligence (AI)-based supply chain analytics and circular economy practices jointly influence sustainable supply chain performance, with net-zero supply chain as a mediating mechanism. It also examines the moderating roles of supply chain ambidexterity and environmental dynamism in this relationship. Design/methodology/approach Grounded in the dynamic capabilities theory and the natural resource-based view, a moderated mediation model was developed and tested using survey data from 420 managers in Iraq’s manufacturing sector. Partial least squares structural equation modeling was used to validate the model and test hypotheses. Findings The results reveal that Industry 4.0 technologies positively influence sustainable supply chain performance both directly and indirectly through the sequential mediating roles of AI-based supply chain analytics, circular economy practices and net-zero supply chain. While AI-based supply chain analytics have no direct impact on net-zero supply chain, their mediating and interaction effects are significant. Supply chain ambidexterity enhances the influence of Industry 4.0 technologies on AI-based supply chain analytics, and environmental dynamism strengthens the relationship between AI-based supply chain analytics and net-zero supply chain. These results confirm that digital and circular capabilities, when integrated and supported by organizational and environmental factors, can significantly enhance sustainability outcomes. Practical implications This study provides managers with a strategic roadmap for deploying AI, Industry 4.0 technologies and circular initiatives to achieve net-zero goals and improve supply chain sustainability. Emphasis is placed on investing in analytics, fostering ambidexterity and adapting to environmental uncertainty. Originality/value This is among the first studies, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to empirically test a comprehensive moderated mediation model linking Industry 4.0 technologies, AI, circularity and net-zero strategies to sustainability performance in an emerging economy context.