Incidence and natural course of fatty liver in the general population: The Dionysos study

Using the general population of the Dionysos Study, we followed up 144 subjects without fatty liver (FL−) and 336 with fatty liver (FL+) for a median time of 8.5 years. All subjects had suspected liver disease (SLD) defined as altered liver enzymes, high mean corpuscular volume, or low platelet count in the absence of HBV and HCV infection. Ethanol intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire, and FL was diagnosed using ultrasonography. The incidence and remission rates of FL were 18.5 and 55.0 per 1,000 person-years. Progression to cirrhosis or HCC was rare in both cohorts (incidence rate: 1.7 versus 1.1 and 0.8 versus 0.4 per 1,000 person-years for FL− versus FL+). Multivariable Poisson regression was performed to identify predictors of FL incidence and remission among sex, age, body mass index, ethanol, and liver enzymes. Every increase of 20 g/day of ethanol intake at baseline was associated with a 17% increase in the rate of incident FL ( P = 0.019), a 10% decrease in the rate of remitting FL and SLD ( P = 0.043), a 19% decrease in the rate of remitting FL with persistent SLD ( P = 0.002), and a 10% increase in mortality rate ( P = 0.005) in the FL+ cohort. Conclusion: In the general population of the Dionysos Study, FL regressed in nearly 1 of every 2 cases and had a substantially benign course. Ethanol intake was the most important risk factor for FL remission and incidence and a predictor of mortality in subjects with FL.