Dynamic safe nitrogen boundary for maintaining surface water quality in China

Nitrogen plays a critical role in Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, acting as both an essential nutrient for life and an environmental pollutant. Managing nitrogen use within safe boundaries is crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly under the pressures of a growing global population. Here, we quantified the temporal dynamics in the safe boundary for nitrogen input to the human-nature system in view of surface water quality in China, driven by changes in management practices and runoff over the period of 1980 to 2020. Insufficient nitrogen management in the human-nature system led to a reduction in the safe nitrogen boundary from 27 Tg N year −1 in 1980 to 17 Tg N year −1 in 2006. Subsequently, improvements in agricultural nitrogen use efficiency and urban waste management contributed to an expansion of this boundary, which reached 34 Tg N year −1 by 2020. Further integration of nitrogen management strategies spanning agriculture, urban waste, and human dietary patterns is needed to maintain nitrogen use within the established safe boundary by 2050, generating societal benefits of US$335 billion for ecosystems, human health, climate, and food supply, with associated implementation costs of US$106 billion. These findings demonstrate that improved nitrogen management practices can dynamically expand the safe operating space for higher nitrogen utilization to support human well-being while keeping nitrogen pollution within safe environmental limits.