自回归积分移动平均
蒸散量
环境科学
支流
降水
索引(排版)
均方误差
气候变化
气候学
气象学
水资源
统计
时间序列
数学
地理
计算机科学
生态学
地图学
生物
地质学
万维网
作者
Wenhua Chen,Jing Xu,Shuangcheng Li
出处
期刊:American Journal of Climate Change
[Scientific Research Publishing, Inc.]
日期:2020-01-01
卷期号:09 (02): 87-99
被引量:1
标识
DOI:10.4236/ajcc.2020.92007
摘要
Global climate change, temperature rise and some kinds of extreme meteorological disaster, such as the drought, threaten the development of the natural ecosystem and human society.Forecasting in drought is an important step toward developing a disaster mitigation system.In this study, we utilized the statistical, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict drought conditions based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in a major tributary in the lower reaches of Nu River.We employed data from 2001 to 2010 to fit the model and data from 2011 to 2013 for model validation.The results showed that the coefficients of determination (R 2 ) was over 0.85 in each index series, and the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error were low, implying that the ARIMA model is effective and adequate for this region.
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI