Trajectories and predictors of perinatal depressive symptoms among Kenyan women: a prospective cohort study

There are gaps in understanding longitudinal patterns and predictors of perinatal depressive symptoms in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to explore trajectories of depressive symptoms and associated factors from pregnancy to 9 months post partum among Kenyan women.In this prospective cohort study, we analysed data from the PrEP Implementation for Mothers in Antenatal Care (PrIMA) study in which HIV-negative women were enrolled in pregnancy and followed up to 9 months post partum in 20 public sector maternal-child health clinics in western Kenya. Pregnant women were eligible for enrolment if they were not infected with HIV, aged 15 years or older, and were able to provide consent. Eligible participants were screened and enrolled between Jan 15, 2018, and July 31, 2019, and followed up to 9 months post partum, with the last participant study visit conducted on Jan 15, 2021. Study nurses serially assessed depressive symptoms using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10), intimate partner violence with the Hurt, Insult, Threaten, Scream scale, and social support with the Medical Outcomes Study scale. Generalised estimating equations were used to identify correlates of moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms (CESD-10 score ≥10) and group-based trajectory modelling identified discrete trajectories of perinatal depressive symptoms.Among 4447 participants in the main PrIMA study, 3555 had complete depressive symptom data in pregnancy and depressive symptom data post partum and were included in the primary analysis. Median age was 24·0 years (IQR 21·0-28·7), 1330 (38%) participants had low social support, and 278 (8%) reported intimate partner violence in pregnancy. All participants (100%) were female and all (100%) were of African Kenyan ethnicity. Prevalence of moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms was higher in pregnancy than post partum (870 [24·5%; 95% CI 23·1-25·9] vs 597 [6·8%; 15·6-18·1]; p<0·0001). Five patterns of depressive symptoms were identified; persistent moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms in pregnancy and post partum (295 [8·3%]), moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms in pregnancy that resolved post partum (139 [3·9%]), moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms that emerged post partum (40 [1·1%]), chronically mild symptoms (2709 [76·2%]), and no depressive symptoms (372 [10·5%]). Emergent moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were associated with older age. Emergent, persistent, and resolving moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were associated with intimate partner violence during pregnancy; and persistent and resolving moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were associated with low social support and high HIV risk (all p<0·05). Moderate-to-severe depressive symptom risk was significantly increased with intimate partner violence (adjusted odds ratio 2·07 [95% CI 1·81-2·31]; p<0·0001), low social support (1·74 [1·56-1·95]; p<0·0001), and partner HIV-positive status (1·48 [1·22-1·78]; p<0·0001). 23·34% (95% CI 18·77-27·65) of cases of perinatal moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were attributable to low social support.One third of women had perinatal moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms; nearly half of these had higher severity phenotypes of resolving, persistent, and emerging moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms that might require tailored interventions. Perinatal women with comorbid psychosocial stressors such as intimate partner violence and previous pregnancy loss should be prioritised for mental health services that augment social support within routine maternal-child health care.National Institutes of Health.For the Kiswahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.