Prediction of subsolid pulmonary nodule growth rate using radiomics

Abstract Background Pulmonary nodule growth rate assessment is critical in the management of subsolid pulmonary nodules (SSNs) during clinical follow-up. The present study aimed to develop a model to predict the growth rate of SSNs. Methods A total of 273 growing SSNs with clinical information and 857 computed tomography (CT) scans were retrospectively analyzed. The images were randomly divided into training and validation sets. All images were categorized into fast-growth (volume doubling time (VDT) ≤ 400 days) and slow-growth (VDT > 400 days) groups. Models for predicting the growth rate of SSNs were developed using radiomics and clinical features. The models’ performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) values for the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results The fast- and slow-growth groups included 108 and 749 scans, respectively, and 10 radiomics features and three radiographic features (nodule density, presence of spiculation, and presence of vascular changes) were selected to predict the growth rate of SSNs. The nomogram integrating radiomics and radiographic features (AUC = 0.928 and AUC = 0.905, respectively) performed better than the radiographic (AUC = 0.668 and AUC = 0.689, respectively) and radiomics (AUC = 0.888 and AUC = 0.816, respectively) models alone in both the training and validation sets. Conclusion The nomogram model developed by combining radiomics with radiographic features can predict the growth rate of SSNs more accurately than traditional radiographic models. It can also optimize clinical treatment decisions for patients with SSNs and improve their long-term management.