Potential Geographical Distributions and Spatial Shifts Trends of Ecological Tea Plantations of Camellia Sinensis VAR. Assamica in Yunnan Province, China

Camellia sinensis var.assamica is a unique product of Geographical Indication in Yunnan province. Centennial tea plantations within plantations of C.sinensis var.assamica can yield high-quality ecological tea. However, the limited production of ecological tea is insufficient to meet the widespread demand for high-quality tea leaves. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibits better accuracy and reliability in predicting the potential suitable distribution of small-sample species. Therefore, this study based on 80 sample data and 16 key environmental variables, optimize the MaxEnt model using the ENMeval package. The distribution and changes of the potential suitable areas of ecological tea plantations of C.sinensis var.assamica in Yunnan province were extracted for the periods 1981-2010(History), 2011-2040(Current), and 2041-2070(Future). The research results indicate that the performance of the MaxEnt model has been enhanced, with the 10P value reduced to 0.1125 and Training AUC and Test AUC reaching 0.9516 and 0.9422, respectively. In the three periods, the potential suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the western, the south and southwest regions of Yunnan Province. The area of high suitability has decreased by a total of 259 km2, while the area of moderate suitability has increased by 4031 km2. There is potential for developing ecological tea plantations of C.sinensis var.assamica in the western, the southern and southwestern parts of Yunnan Province. The managers and planners of tea plantations can further plan for the transformation and evaluation of tea gardens based on local policies. The results of this study will contribute to driving tea industry in Yunnan Province towards a more sustainable development path.