计算机科学
遗忘
适配器(计算)
参数统计
概率逻辑
推论
人工智能
构造(python库)
机器学习
记忆模型
系列(地层学)
先验与后验
冗余(工程)
适应(眼睛)
编码(社会科学)
数据挖掘
内存地址
时间序列
动态随机存取存储器
作者
Sisuo Lyu,Siru Zhong,Tiegang Chen,Weilin Ruan,Qingxiang Liu,Taiqiang Lv,Qingsong Wen,Raymond Chi-Wing Wong,Yuxuan Liang
标识
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2602.11550
摘要
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging. Existing solutions face a trade-off: Parametric Adaptation can cause catastrophic forgetting and requires costly multi-domain maintenance, while Non-Parametric Retrieval improves forecasts but incurs high inference latency due to datastore search. We propose Parametric Memory Distillation and implement it as TS-Memory, a lightweight memory adapter that augments frozen TSFMs. TS-Memory is trained in two stages. First, we construct an offline, retrieval-leakage-safe kNN teacher that synthesizes confidence-aware quantile targets from retrieved futures. Second, we distill this retrieval-induced distributional correction into a lightweight memory adapter via confidence-gated supervision. During inference, TS-Memory fuses memory and backbone predictions with constant-time overhead, enabling retrieval-free deployment. Experiments across diverse TSFMs and benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both point and probabilistic forecasting over representative adaptation methods, with efficiency comparable to the frozen backbone. Code: https://github.com/sisuolv/TS-Memory.
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