Geothermal energy network transition dynamics for the existing building stock - A case study for New York

Geothermal energy networks (GENs) offer a utility-scale pathway for decarbonizing heating and cooling in existing buildings by pooling subsurface thermal resources and distributing energy through networked heat pump systems, thereby avoiding many limitations of individual retrofits. This study develops a system dynamics model to examine GEN transition dynamics in New York by coupling opinion-driven adoption intent, technology deployment constrained by equipment lifetimes and network availability, and a physically grounded GEN operational submodel. Adoption intent is represented using an augmented opinion-dynamics framework that captures the influence of price competitiveness, workforce readiness, infrastructure availability, policy expectation, and advocate strength, while realized deployment is governed by stock-and-flow constraints that limit installations to feasible retirement and replacement rates. Energy consumption and emissions are calculated using a stock-binning approach that scales representative heating and cooling demand in discrete deployment blocks, preserving stock–flow consistency and avoiding linear over-scaling. Model results indicate that GEN adoption intent becomes predominant rapidly, overtaking fossil fuel favorability after approximately three years under current New York policy and sentiment conditions. A further global sensitivity analysis on various external factors within the base model indicates a range from about 2 – 18 years in GEN adoption intent dominance. However, realized deployment remains constrained by network expansion and equipment turnover, leading hybrid systems to function as a recurring fallback when GEN connections are unavailable. The limited notional service territory characteristics – tied to typical building diversity for New York – include a peak thermal heating load of 177.0 MW and a cooling load of 129.9 MW. Over a 45-year horizon, the modeled transition yields approximately 2,097 GWh of additional electricity consumption, 7,639 GWh of avoided methane gas use, and 14% avoided CO₂-equivalent emissions relative to an initial-state static baseline, under present-day grid conditions. Sensitivity analysis shows that price competitiveness and policy expectation strongly influence transition timing, while advocate strength can delay favorable adoption by decades, underscoring the importance of infrastructure, workforce, and regulatory mechanisms in translating consumer intent into physical system change.