Associated Risks to the Treatment of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms (MARTA) Score: Development and External Validation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) are increasingly detected and require careful management to prevent rupture. No externally validated score currently predicts procedural risk to guide treatment decisions. We developed and validated 2 predictive scores for complications after endovascular treatment (EVT) or neurosurgical treatment (NT) of UIA using routinely collected clinical and aneurysmal features. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective study including patients with UIA treated with EVT or NT across 15 neurovascular centers (2014-2024). Predictive models were built using multivariable logistic regression, with variables derived from Delphi consensus. The primary outcome was a composite safety end point: new neurological deficits, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) worsening (≥1 point or mRS 2-5 within 30 days), or procedural death. Internal validation used bootstrapping, and external validation was performed temporally and institutionally. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration. Final scores, named Morbidity and Mortality Associated Risk in the Treatment of UIAs (MARTA)-EVT and MARTA-NT, were compared with existing models identified through systematic review. RESULTS: Among 2647 patients (1907 EVT and 740 NT), procedural complications occurred in 6.3% (EVT) and 12.8% (NT). Independent predictors included age, baseline mRS, aneurysm location, size, morphology, and procedural factors. MARTA-EVT (AUROC = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.57-0.78) and MARTA-NT (AUROC = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.54-0.77) showed moderate discrimination and good calibration. MARTA-EVT outperformed existing models; MARTA-NT performed similarly to SAFETEA. Predictive models are available open-source: https://martascoreapp.shinyapps.io/martascoreapp/. CONCLUSION: MARTA-EVT and MARTA-NT are validated tools for predicting procedural risks in UIA treatment and may support patient counseling and clinical decision making.