Techno-economic evaluation of molten‑carbonate-mediated ethane ODH as a low-carbon pathway for ethylene production

Molten-carbonate-mediated oxidative dehydrogenation (MM-ODH) of ethane has recently been proposed as a chemical-looping alternative to steam cracking that integrates ethane conversion, in situ CO 2 capture and conversion, and reverse water–gas shift chemistry within a molten carbonate phase. While prior studies have demonstrated favorable ethylene yields and CO co-production, the system-level energy, emissions, and cost implications of MM-ODH have not been quantified. Here, we present a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental evaluation of MM-ODH using rigorous Aspen Plus® process modeling and NETL QGESS-aligned costing, benchmarked against a modern ethane steam cracking plant equipped with monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO 2 capture under identical system boundaries. MM-ODH achieves a 34% reduction in net specific energy consumption relative to the reference case by eliminating dilution steam and solvent regeneration while co-producing CO. Although MM-ODH exhibits moderately higher direct electricity-related emissions, displacement credits from CO reduce product-system emission intensities to 0–0.32 t CO 2 -eq/t ethylene. Despite conservative first-of-a-kind contingencies applied to the reactor, MM-ODH delivers levelized ethylene costs competitive with the benchmark, identifying molten-carbonate looping as a viable pathway for low-carbon ethylene production. • MM-ODH couples ethane cracking with in-situ CO 2 capture and CO co-production. • Net energy use is 34% lower than steam cracking with MEA capture. • MM-ODH product-system net emissions fall to 0–0.32 t CO 2 -eq/t ethylene. • Levelized ethylene costs from MM-ODH are competitive despite FOAK contingencies.