Sweden’s Policy of Neutrality

Abstract This chapter zooms in on the Swedish policy of neutrality and its development over 200 years. Throughout the chapter the ambition is to add nuance to how this policy of neutrality has developed, not least how it has been implemented in flexible ways during changing circumstances. By doing so, the aim is to analyse in what ways the Swedish policy of neutrality can be considered to be a success or not. The chapter presents the background to the modern policy of neutrality through an analysis of the different declarations of neutrality during the 1800s and then moves on with more in-depth analysis of four snapshots, seen as critical junctures, during the 1900s: the First World War, the Second World War, the Cold War, and the post-neutral phase from 1989 to the application for membership in NATO in 2022. The analysis reveals how the policy has been interpreted in highly flexible ways and also been limited by structural conditions such as geopolitical tension, great power conflicts and potential power vaccum. At the same time, the flexibility has often been paired with a strong desire for predictability. Throughout these periods, it has been repeatedly claimed that the purpose of neutrality is that Sweden’s behaviour should be predictable in a potential crisis and therefore less threatening. The overall conclusion of the chapter is that the success of the Swedish policy of neutrality, and its overarching goal to preserve stability and self-determination, have been found in this tension between flexibility and predictability.