Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulation

Abstract. In order to evaluate whether the initialization of soil moisture has the potential to improve the prediction skill of coupled climate models at seasonal to decadal time scales, an elaborated AMIP-type experiment was conducted. The experiment design considered soil moisture initialization in different seasons and years, and yields information about the life-time (memory) of extreme yet realistic soil moisture perturbations. Our analyses were focused on root zone soil moisture (RootSM) as it comprises the part of the soil that directly interacts with the atmosphere via bare soil evaporation and transpiration. We found that RootSM memory differs not only spatially but also depends on the time of initialization. Long memory up to one year is evident mostly for dry soil moisture regimes, after heavy precipitation periods or prior to snow covered conditions. Short memory below two weeks prevails in wet soil moisture regimes and prior to distinct precipitation periods or snow melt. Furthermore, RootSM perturbations affect other land surface states, e.g. soil temperature and leaf carbon content, and even induce anomalies with specific memory in these variables. Especially for deep layer soil temperature these anomalies can last up to several years. As long as RootSM memory is evident, we found that anomalies occur periodically in other land surface states whenever climate conditions allow for interactions between that state and RootSM. Additionally, anomaly recurrence is visible for RootSM itself. This recurrence is related to the thickness of the soil layer below the root zone and can affect RootSM for several years. From our findings we conclude that soil moisture initialization has the potential to improve the predictive skill of climate models on seasonal scales and beyond. However, a sophisticated, multi-layered soil hydrology scheme is necessary, to allow for the interactions between RootSM and the deep soil layer reservoir.