Evaluation of Darwin-ME Pavement Rutting Prediction Models Using Data from Alberta's Pavement Management System

Research under the United States-Canada joint Strategic Highway Research Program and the Long Term Pavement Performance study has led to the development of the Mechanistic- Empirical Pavement Design Guide (M-EPDG) and its software package known as DARWin- ME. The permanent pavement deformation model in M-EPDG was studied using the pavement inventory data from Alberta Transportation's Pavement Management System. Instead of studying performance of individual pavement sections, the study used historical structural and performance data based on network level groups to compare measured pavement rutting to the DARWin-ME predicted total pavement rutting depths. The study found that, for Alberta Transportation, the globally calibrated permanent deformation model in M-EPDG consistently over predicts total pavement rutting for new flexible pavements with granular base courses on the provincial highway network. In contrast, the M-EPDG model tends to under predict total rutting for flexible pavements after rehabilitation that involved milling, with occasional exceptions. The amount of under predicted rutting is moderate. The M-EPDG model had close predictions for the 20 year total rutting for flexible pavements rehabilitated with straight overlays. It is considered that the initial findings of this study will provide insights for future calibration of the performance models in DARWin-ME for Alberta conditions. Future calibration studies should be extended to include more pavement types, fine tuning of the grouping method, additional distress models, and input parameter sensitivity analysis. For the covering abstract of this conference see record control number 201111RT334E.