Estimating the risk of post-COVID condition in deprived communities, migrants and ethnic minorities in England: findings from Virus Watch—a prospective community cohort study

Background Deprived communities, migrants and ethnic minorities were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and may, therefore, be at a higher risk of post-COVID condition (PCC). This analysis, using data from the Virus Watch study, investigates how deprivation, migration status and ethnic minority status influence PCC risk in both the full cohort (all regardless of infection status) and those with a confirmed COVID-19 infection. Methods A subset of participants from Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort study in England, were included. We used logistic regression to compare the predicted probability of developing PCC in both full and infected cohorts among different deprivation levels, migration and ethnic minority status categories by sex-at-birth during pre-Omicron and Omicron periods, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Results During the pre-Omicron period, PCC probability increased with deprivation levels, especially in females (most deprived: 7.8%, 95% CI 4.6% to 11.0%; least deprived: 3.5%, 2.5%–4.5%). Migrant and ethnic minority males had a higher likelihood of PCC than their respective counterparts, particularly in the full cohort for migrants (6.3%, 1.8%–10.8%) and the previously infected cohort for ethnic minorities (38.8%, 21.2%–56.4%). However, these disparities were less pronounced in females. In the Omicron period, these differential probabilities were also less evident. Conclusion Our findings suggest that greater PCC probability among these populations is driven by increased infection risk and postinfection determinants. This underscores the need for policies and interventions to reduce infection risk and affordable and easily available healthcare services for those with PCC.