Study on the driving factors of ecosystem service value under the dual influence of natural environment and human activities

A systematic comprehension of the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) and its key driving factors in the water source area of the central line project of south-to-north water diversion (CLPSNWD) is essential for advancing ecological protection and promoting high-quality development in the water source area. In this paper, the dynamic adjusted equivalent factor method is used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in the water source area. The main driving factors of ESV evolution in water source area were studied by using geodetector. The results show that: (1) Urban scattered expansion increased the area of construction land by 63.66 km2, and the degree of fragmentation has intensified. The water area increased the most, reaching 209.43 km2 (2) Over the 30-year period, there was a total increase of US$1,434 million in ESV. The largest increases in value were observed in forests and waters, accounting for 98% of the overall increase. Among the individual service functions, hydrological regulation generated the most substantial ESV. (3) The most significant driver was temperature in 1991, 2002, and 2011, and gross domestic product (GDP) played the most significant role in 2020, with the driving role of human activity increasing over time. The two-factor interaction has a stronger explanatory power for ESV, with the interaction between temperature and other factors dominating the evolution of ESV in the water source area.