Aligning risk and value creation: a process model of supply chain risk management in geopolitical disruptions

Purpose This study aims to develop a process model that captures the co-evolution of supply chain risk management (SCRM) and value creation. The model is designed to support multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in addressing the challenges of geopolitical disruptions, such as the US–China trade war, by providing a framework for simultaneously strengthening SCRM and enhancing value delivery in the global supply chain. Design/methodology/approach This study employed an inductive case study methodology to construct a theoretical process model of SCRM, drawing on data from semi-structured interviews with eight multinational SMEs impacted by the US–China trade war since January 2018. Using grounded theory techniques—including open coding, axial coding, and selective coding—the interview data were systematically analyzed to develop a process model that captures the complexities of managing supply chain risks in a volatile geopolitical context. Findings This study presents a process model illustrating the co-evolution of SCRM and value creation within firms in response to geopolitical disruptions. The evolutionary process of SCRM progresses through four stages: decoding disruption dynamics, synergizing the information ecosystem, catalyzing adaptive transformation, and architecting resilient adaptation. Correspondingly, the value creation process evolves alongside SCRM, aligning with each stage. It includes value-contextualized recalibration, value-driven communication, value-centric customization, and value-sustained resilience. Originality/value This study offers a novel contribution by developing a process model that captures the co-evolution of SCRM and value creation. It identifies four critical stages in the SCRM life cycle, each intricately aligned with corresponding phases of value creation. This integrated framework provides a strategic pathway for firms to navigate supply chain risks while simultaneously enhancing value delivery, particularly in the context of geopolitical disruptions such as the US–China trade war. By linking SCRM and value creation, the study equips multinational SMEs with a practical and comprehensive roadmap for building resilience and competitiveness in an increasingly volatile global environment.