The Democratic Party of Japan's security policy and Japanese politics of constitutional revision: a cloud over Article 9?

Abstract A Referendum Law took effect in Japan in May 2010. Since a referendum is a prerequisite to any change to the Japanese ‘Peace Constitution’, this is an event with potentially far-reaching consequences. By gauging the Democratic Party of Japan's views on the issue of revision of the constitution—particularly revision of the famous Article 9, with remains a foundation of Japanese security policy—and by extrapolating on the findings, this article aims to further the understanding of the new government's security policy more generally. After finding that the probability that the Japanese government will capitalise on the coming into force of the Referendum Law to reopen the constitutional debate is currently low, the article advances a number of hypotheses as to why this is the case, and discusses scenarios under which the status quo could change. Finally, it draws out the implications (a) of the preceding analysis for DPJ security policy, and (b) of DPJ security policy for the interpretation of the constitution where Article 9 is concerned. Acknowledgements The author is very grateful to the two anonymous referees of the Australian Journal of International Affairs for their very useful comments. He would also like to express his gratitude to Professor Takehiko Yamamoto and Mr Shinji Matsumoto for their invaluable support during fieldwork, and to the individuals who agreed to be interviewed for this piece. Finally, he acknowledges his fellowship with the Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities, supported by a grant from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, and a travel grant from the Swedish School of Advanced Asia-Pacific Studies (SSAAPS) and the Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education (STINT)–/both of which made this research possible. Notes 2. Author's interview with LDP Diet member Nukaga Fukushirō, Tokyo, 30 November 2009. 3. Author's interview with independent Diet member Hiranuma Takeo, Tokyo, 3 December 2009. In April 2010, Hiranuma launched a new party—The Sunrise Party of Japan (Tachiagare Nippon). 4. Author's interview with DPJ Diet member Matsubara Jin, Tokyo, 2 December 2009. 5. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member Hachiro Yukio, Tokyo, 26 November 2009, and DPJ Diet member Tetsuka Yoshio, Tokyo, 1 December 2009. 6. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member Edano Yukio, Tokyo, 2 December 2009, and DPJ Diet member Hosono Gōshi, Tokyo, 24 November 2009. 7. Author's interview with DPJ Diet member Azumi Jun, Tokyo, 27 November 2009. 8. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member and Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Defence Nagashima Akihisa, Tokyo, 1 December 2009, and Edano. 9. Interview with Hosono. 10. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member Yamada Ryōji, Tokyo, 26 November 2009; DPJ Diet member Nakano Jō, Tokyo, 27 November 2009; and Hachiro, Tetsuka and Edano. 11. Interview with Azumi. 12. Interview with Edano. 13. Author's interview with DPJ Diet Member Nakajima Masaki, Tokyo, 24 November 2009. 14. Interviews with Tetsuka and Hosono. 15. Interviews with Azumi and Nakajima. 16. Interview with Hosono. 17. Interview with Matsubara. 18. The RCC of both houses of the Diet issued extensive reports in April 2005. A majority held that Clause 1 of Article 9 should be maintained while Clause 2 should be revised to clarify the right to self-defence and the SDF. 19. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member Yatagawa Hajime, Tokyo, 25 November 2009, and Hachiro, Nagashima, Nakajima, Nakano and Nukaga. 20. Hosono, Edano and Nakajima voiced the same opinion in interviews. 21. Interview with Nagashima. 22. Interview with Hachiro. 23. Interview with Hachiro. 24. Author's interviews with DPJ Diet member Jinpu Hideo, Tokyo, 27 November 2009 and Yamada, who support revision, and with Yatagawa and Hachiro, who do not. 25. Interviews with Azumi, Hachiro, Jinpu, Matsubara, Tetsuka and Yatagawa. 26. Interview with Hiranuma. 27. Author's interview with a DJP Diet member who wishes to remain anonymous, Tokyo, 24 November 2009. 28. Interview with Nagashima. 29. Interviews with Jinpu, Nukaga and Yatagawa. 30. Author's interview with Diet member Nakajima Masaki, Tokyo, 2 December 2009. 31. Interview with Matsubara. 32. Interviews with Hachiro and Nakajima, 2 December. 33. Interview with Edano; Hosono and Nakajima (2 December) voiced similar opinions in interviews. 34. Interview with Hosono and Azumi. 35. Interview with Nagashima. 36. Interviews with Azumi, Hosono and Nakajima, 2 December. 37. Interviews with Hachiro and Tetsuka. 38. Interviews with Jinpu and Nagashima. 39. Interview with Hosono; Azumi, Matsubara and Nagashima voiced similar opinions in interviews. 40. Interviews with Azumi and Hosono. 41. Interviews with Edano and Nakajima, 24 November. 42. Interview with Nagashima; Yamada voiced a similar opinion. 43. Interview with Hosono. 44. Interview with Nakano. Additional informationNotes on contributorsLinus Hagström Linus Hagström (PhD, Stockholm University) is Associate Professor of Political Science and a Senior Research Fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Stockholm. He is also a Research Fellow at the Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities, supported by a grant from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation