Land use policies and their effects on Brazilian farming production

For decades Brazil has faced a dilemma based on a perceived dichotomy between natural preservation and economic progress. Since 1988, more than 446,000 km2 of native land has been cleared by clearcutting in Brazilian Legal Amazon alone, an area comparable to Sweden. In addition to the biodiversity loss associated with this activity, it is a significant global warming source since more than 72% of gross CO2e emissions of Brazil come from land use, land-use change, forestry, and agriculture. As such, the national commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030, with respect to 2005 levels, is likely to be at risk. Here, a simulation model has been created to provide decision-makers with knowledge about the future of Brazilian farming production in deforestation, neutral net land-use change, and reforestation scenarios. It has been found that farming demand and capital supply impact farming production significantly more than land availability. If reforestation policies to 2005 natural coverage levels were to be implemented, there would be no significant differences in Brazilian major farming crop production to a reference scenario of continuous deforestation. However, this would be at the expense of secondary crops usually earmarked for the domestic market. For Brazil to preserve its natural coverage, it must also inevitably improve crop productivity, especially in the Northeast region, while also being cognizant of the impact on domestic food prices. Lastly, Brazil needs to have incentives to foster intensive livestock farming. These results provide evidence that can support policies towards the profitable and sustainable scenarios described in the simulations.