The burden of multiple myeloma in China: Trends from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts for 2050

This study updates the disease burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in thirty-three provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the disease burden for 2050. Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database was used for analysis. In 2021, there were an estimated 17,250 new MM cases and 12,984 deaths in China. The age-standardized incidence, mortality, and prevalence rates per 100,000 population were 0.8, 0.6, and 2.2, respectively. The highest disease burden was observed in provinces with the highest per capita GDP. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence and mortality increased by 3.1% and 2.2%, respectively, while prevalence increased disproportionately by 5.8%, reflecting improved treatment efficacy and extended patient survival. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate increased by 2.2%. A more rapid rise in the disease burden was observed in younger populations compared to the elderly. In 2021, 5.5% of MM deaths were attributed to high body mass index. Over the past three decades, the MM burden in China has steadily increased. Forecasts for 2050 also indicated this upward trend will likely continue into the future. This study provided comprehensive estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward management of MM in China. • Comprehensive analysis of MM burden in China from 1990–2021 using GBD 2021 data. • Significant rise in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs over 30 years. • Higher MM burden observed in economically developed provinces with higher per capita GDP. • Rising MM burden among younger populations, linked to high body mass index (BMI). • Forecasts suggest continued rise in MM burden, requiring targeted public health policies.