Roles of dam and climate change in thermal regime alteration of a large river

Abstract Water temperature in the Yangtze River mainstream has been experiencing significant changes due to the climate change and the operation of a series of world-class large dams, i.e. the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) and upstream cascade dams (CDs). However, quantitative effects of these factors are not fully known, which hinders our understanding on the thermal regime alterations and further prediction in ecosystem response. Here, we will simulate the riverine water temperature (RWT) variations by building a physics-based model, and quantify the respective impacts from TGD, CDs and climate change through a model-based framework. In the framework, both the dam-regulated hydro-thermodynamic processes and the spatial heterogeneity of the meteorological condition in this large river-reservoir system are thoroughly considered. The results show a fluvial warming of 0.31 °C–0.56 °C/10a in recent three decades, mainly attributed to climate change (44%–80% for different reaches). The dam has caused a substantial seasonal thermal lag, e.g. ∼40 d near the TGD in the dry season, and accompanying severe alterations in the monthly RWT. A reduction of 10% in seasonal RWT range is identified, which is attributed to both dam and climate change.