Molecular Testing Predicts Incomplete Response to Initial Therapy in Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma Without Lateral Neck or Distant Metastasis at Presentation: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Molecular testing (MT) is emerging as a potential prognostic factor that can be available before treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma begins. Among patients eligible for either lobectomy or total thyroidectomy as their initial therapy, our study aims were to assess (1) if conventionally available preoperative factors are associated with incomplete response to initial therapy, and (2) if MT results can be a surrogate for the ATA Risk Stratification System (RSS) to estimate risk of recurrence. Methods: The data of consecutive thyroid cancer patients without preoperative lateral neck disease or distant metastasis who underwent index thyroidectomy between November 1, 2017 and October 31, 2021 were reviewed. Logistic regression models including preoperative variables such as MT and/or the postoperatively available RSS were constructed to predict disease recurrence, either structural or biochemical. Model discrimination using the c-statistic and goodness-of-fit test were compared. Results: Among 945 patients studied, 50 (5.2%) recurred with 18-month median follow-up. Recurrences were detected in 17 (2.9%), 20 (6.7%), and 13 (22.8%) patients with RSS-low, -intermediate, and -high cancers, respectively (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, only tumor size was associated with recurrence (odds ratio [OR] 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.5). In a different model analyzing 440 (46.6%) patients with available MT results, recurrence was associated with both larger tumor size (OR 1.4 [95% CI 1.1-1.8]) and MT results (p < 0.001). Including MT improved the c-statistic by 27%, which was statistically no different than the model incorporating only the RSS (p = 0.15). Conclusions: Disease recurrence was observed across all ATA RSS categories in short-term follow-up, and tumor size was the only conventional preoperative factor associated with recurrence. When MT results were incorporated, they not only improved predictive ability beyond tumor size alone, but also yielded similar ability as the gold standard ATA RSS. Thus, MT results might aid the development of novel preoperative risk stratification algorithms.