Mediterranean container port reconfiguration under geopolitical disruption: an AIS-based multi-scale analysis

Abstract Recent geopolitical events in the Red Sea have disrupted the passage of commercial vessels transiting through the Suez Canal. In response, shipping lines have rerouted services via the Cape of Good Hope to secure trade between Asia, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. This paper offers a strategic analysis of the reconfiguration of containerised flows in the Mediterranean, based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data collected over a 240-day period centred on the onset of the crisis. Rather than seeking to identify the internal decision-making processes of shipping companies, the study examines how network reconfigurations materialised at port level, using a multi-scale analytical approach focused on observable changes in port positioning within the Mediterranean port system. By combining port typology (hubs and gateways), vessel size categories and the reallocation of deployed capacity, this paper analyses relative changes in attractiveness and resilience of the main Mediterranean container ports. The results highlight a pronounced shift of capacity, particularly from the largest vessels, towards ports in the western Mediterranean, contrasting with the sharp contraction observed in several Eastern Mediterranean hubs. Within this broader East–West reconfiguration, ports such as Tanger Med illustrate how certain Western Mediterranean hubs were able to limit capacity losses, consistent with their geographical positioning and integration within carrier service networks. Overall, the study demonstrates the value of AIS data, as a strategic-monitoring tool, in documenting port-level manifestations of sudden geopolitical disruption, and supporting situational awareness for port authorities and operators, while acknowledging the limits of AIS-based inference regarding underlying strategic intentions.