High-Accuracy Identification of Cropping Structure in Irrigation Districts Using Data Fusion and Machine Learning

Persistent cloud cover during the growing season and mosaic cropping patterns introduce temporal gaps and mixed pixels, undermining the reliability of large-scale crop identification and acreage statistics. To address these issues, we develop a high spatiotemporal-resolution remote-sensing approach tailored to heterogeneous farmlands. First, an improved Spatiotemporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) is used to fuse Landsat, Sentinel-2, and MODIS observations, reconstructing a continuous Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series at 30 m spatial and 8-day temporal resolution. Second, at the field scale, we derive phenological descriptors from the reconstructed series—key phenophase timing, amplitude, temporal trend, and growth rate—and use a Random Forest (RF) classifier for detailed crop discrimination. We further integrate SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to quantify each feature’s class-discriminative contribution and signed effect, thereby guiding feature-set optimization and threshold refinement. Finally, we generate a 2024 crop distribution map and conduct comparative evaluations. Relative to baselines without fusion or without phenological variables, the fused series mitigates single-sensor limitations under frequent cloud/rain and irregular acquisitions, enhances NDVI continuity and robustness, and reveals inter-crop temporal phase shifts that, when jointly exploited, reduce early-season confusion and improve identification accuracy. Independent validation yields an overall accuracy (OA) of 90.78% and a Cohen’s kappa(κ) coefficient of 0.882. Coupling dense NDVI reconstruction with phenology-aware constraints and SHAP-based interpretability demonstrably improves the accuracy and reliability of cropping-structure extraction in complex agricultural regions and provides a reusable pathway for regional-scale precision agricultural monitoring.