Balancing public acceptability and consensus regarding marine protected areas management using the Potential for Conflict Index2

Implementing marine protected areas and deciding what activities should be permitted can result in public conflict. The Potential for Conflict Index2 has assessed the likelihood of conflicts across various contexts but has not yet been applied to managing marine protected areas. This article examined levels of consensus or potential conflict across various management options before implementing a new MPA. The options ranged from no-take to allowing oil drilling. Data from the island of Newfoundland, Canada, showed that despite public support for full protection (M =0.64 ± 1.08), a higher potential for conflict was observed for not allowing small-scale fishing (PCI2 = 0.30) and closing the area for any human activity (PCI2 = 0.26). A lower potential for conflict/higher consensus was observed for not allowing industrial fishing (PCI2 = 0.13) and oil exploration (PCI2 = 0.14). Levels of consensus did not differ statistically between closing the area and allowing small-scale fishing (d = 1.82, p > .05), but differed between the other options. Understanding public acceptability for MPAs and identifying areas of potential conflict may increase the likelihood of successfully implementing new areas for biodiversity conservation and meeting the global targets of ocean protection.