Global Vegetation‐Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century

Abstract It has been projected that climatic warming will contribute to vegetation productivity variability at the global scale. With a continued warming, to what extent and where the vegetation productivity is most affected by warming has still not been adequately quantified. Herein, based on 11 earth system model outputs, we predict the characteristics of vegetation‐temperature sensitivity ( S vpt , defined as higher/lower temperature produce more/less vegetation) changes under different CO 2 emission scenarios and various vegetation types, further assessing the relationship of the S vpt to socio‐ecosystems. At the end of the 21st century, the area proportion with the global temperature increases >2°C under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios are 3%, 40%, 97%, and 99%, respectively. The largest contribution to the global terrestrial gross primary productivity growth is at low latitudes. 33%–63% of global terrestrial ecosystems show a significantly negative trend in the S vpt , indicating the weakened promotion effect of warming on vegetation growth. In particular, in 2060, there will be a clear reversal of the trend from carbon sink to carbon source under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, spatially distributed mainly in the Amazon rainforest, tropical Africa, and southern North America. Precipitation is also an important factor affecting the S vpt change, and there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between them. Precipitation thresholds are higher under the high emission scenario when S vpt reaches its highest value. Moreover, socio‐demographic pressures in places like Central Africa and East Africa will offset the promotion of vegetation growth by warming; in the future, these countries should develop appropriate population and land management strategies to achieve socio‐ecosystems sustainable development.