A Monte Carlo simulation case study on blueberries from Mexico

Abstract Global blueberry production more than doubled during the last decade. In Mexico, the production of this fruit has grown faster than globally, positioning this country among the top five international blueberry-producing regions. This case study focuses on a prospective investor planning to grow blueberries in Mexico and export most production to the U.S., the largest producer and consumer of fresh blueberries. A high-technology producer growing blueberries under high tunnels in western Mexico is featured in this article. The case study was researched using a combination of field visits to blueberry producers, collaborative work with an industry consultant, and academic research. The article provides industry statistics on blueberries in Mexico and globally over the last decade. In addition, it describes how the authors conceptualized and developed discounted cash flow models to evaluate this potential investment. Despite the importance of blueberries from Mexico, there is a need for financial models to assess the profitability and risk of growing blueberries in that country. Students solving this case are expected to identify risks and opportunities in the industry and conduct Porter’s five forces competitive analysis. In addition, students will mainly evaluate the results of a stochastic capital budgeting model.