Uncovering the dynamics and uncertainties of substituting coal power with renewable energy resources

China aims to curb “peak carbon dioxide emission” by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2060, which are undoubtedly ambitions and challenging objectives. An important way to achieve this goal is to substitute coal power plants (CPPs) with renewable energy power plants (REPPs). In this context, this study establishes a government-CPPs-REPPs evolutionary game framework combined with the Hotelling model to uncover the dynamics and uncertainties in substitution. The results are as follows: (i) the substitution goes through three stages with significant heterogeneity: the initial, intermediate, and mature stages. The strategy profiles in the mature stage are an ideal choice, and it is essential to strengthen the willingness of power plants to adopt carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy storage technology. (ii) The electricity market share evolves with the changing strategies mix, and the competition shows a variation state of “inefficient–Prisoner's dilemma–Pareto optimality” in three stages. Additionally, renewable energy is the main power source at the mature stage. (iii) Furthermore, it is necessary to decrease the adoption cost of energy storage and CCS technology and maintain a reasonable subsidy phase-out level. Finally, effective policies of the feed-in tariff and carbon market tend to facilitate CCS retrofitting and energy storage system deployment.