Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution Under Multiple Scenarios: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Beijing Using the PLUS-InVEST Model

The carbon stock in terrestrial ecosystems is closely linked to changes in land use. Understanding how land use alterations affect regional carbon stocks is essential for maintaining the carbon balance of ecosystems. This research leverages land use and driving factor data spanning from 2000 to 2020, utilizing the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model alongside the InVEST ecosystem services model to examine the temporal and spatial changes in carbon storage across Beijing. Additionally, four future scenes for 2030—urban development, natural development, cropland protection, as well as eco-protection—are explored, with the PLUS and InVEST models employed to emulate dynamic land use changes and the corresponding carbon stock variations. The results show that the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, changes in land use resulted in a significant decline in carbon storage, with a total reduction of 1.04 × 107 tons. (2) From 2000 to 2020, agricultural, forest, and grassland areas in Beijing all declined to varying extents, while built-up land expanded by 1292.04 km2 (7.88%), with minimal changes observed in water bodies or barren lands. (3) Compared to the carbon storage distribution in 2020, carbon storage in the 2030 urban development scenario decreased by 6.99 × 106 tons, highlighting the impact of rapid urbanization and the expansion of built-up areas on the decline in carbon storage. (4) In the ecological protection scenario, the optimization of land use structure resulted in an increase of 6.01 × 105 tons in carbon storage, indicating that the land use allocation in this scenario contributes to the restoration of carbon storage and enhances the carbon sink capacity of the urban ecosystem. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers in optimizing ecosystem carbon storage from a land use perspective and offers essential guidance for the achievement of the “dual carbon” strategic objectives.