Analysis on Coupling Coordination Degree for Cropland and Livestock from 2000 to 2020 in China

The decoupling of cropland and livestock due to the industrialization of livestock production is a difficult problem for sustainable agricultural development in many global locations, including China. As population and urbanization increase, this decoupling is likely to become more serious. To date, the relationship between cropland and livestock has been mainly studied from a single perspective, and mostly at the regional and the local scales. Thus, the objective of our study is to systematically assess the coupling relationship between cropland and livestock from multiple aspects on a large scale. Here, we used a complex system covering cropland, livestock and environment subsystems to comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal variation of the coupling coordination between cropland and livestock and its influencing factors in China over the past two decades. Elaborating on the data, we constructed a comprehensive system of evaluation indexes for cropland–livestock systems. We used a coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the coupling coordination relationship between cropland and livestock in 31 provinces of China during 2000–2020. The results show that the range of cropland–livestock and cropland–livestock–environment coupling coordination degree was 0.4–0.9. In most of the provinces, there was no risk of cropland and livestock decoupling; however, the coupling coordination degree needed to be increased. More attention should be paid to the coordinated development of cropland and livestock coupling in urbanized areas such as Beijing and Tianjin, where cropland and livestock decoupling was more likely to occur. Among the assessed 29 factors, 15 and 16 had an impact on the cropland–livestock and the cropland–livestock–environment coupling coordination degrees, respectively. Our study provides science-based evidence to support estimating the coupling relationship between cropland and livestock in the future.