Land use and cover change accelerated China’s land carbon sinks limits soil carbon

Abstract Land use and cover change (LUCC) significantly impacts global carbon cycles and land surface properties, accounting for 25% of the historical atmospheric CO2 increase. We explore a previously overlooked role of LUCC in driving the land carbon cycle by using a three-level meta-analysis and Land Use Harmonization data to drive an ecosystem model. Our findings reveal that a loss of 39.2% of soil organic carbon (SOC) change in China due to LUCC, mitigated by afforestation, doubles gross primary productivity at 0.02 Pg C yr−1, countering central China’s urbanization decline. Indirect climate effects, especially soil bulk density, significantly impact SOC compared to direct climate effects. LUCC has significantly increased the Chinese terrestrial carbon sink, with net ecosystem productivity reaching 0.02 ± 0.12 Pg C yr−1. Our study underscores the importance of reforestation and afforestation in addressing climate change and enhancing carbon sinks in future carbon management.