Current trends of soil organic carbon in English arable soils

Abstract. A model of the impact of land management changes upon soil organic carbon (SOC) was constructed, and the total amount of topsoil organic carbon was estimated for the arable area of England from 1940 to 2000. The largest influence on the overall mean SOC in arable topsoils proved to be a decline in the area of both permanent and temporary grassland. SOC declined over a prolonged period (60 years), but has now reached a plateau. Modelling changes in mean values enabled a statistical evaluation to be made between a measured decline in the number of sites with ‘high’ SOC levels between 1980 and 1995, and the decline predicted by the model. The SOC content of arable soils in England was measured at National Soil Inventory sites twice in recent decades: in 1980 and 1995. The proportion of fine textured soils in the lowest SOC class (<2.3%) rose from just over 40% to about 50% over the same period. There was a significant difference between the observed values of 1995 and those expected from modelling the decline from 1980 values, in the category of ‘low SOC’ fine textured soils. The variation in the fine textured soils represents a significant and widespread decline in topsoil organic carbon concentrations, which was greater than the underlying long‐term trend.