A mutation-based gene set predicts survival benefit after immunotherapy across multiple cancers and reveals the immune response landscape

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy has revolutionized the treatment of many cancers. However, the limited population that benefits from ICI therapy makes it necessary to screen predictive biomarkers for stratifying patients. Currently, many biomarkers, such as tumor mutational burden (TMB), have been used in the clinic as indicative biomarkers. However, some high-TMB patients with mutations in genes that are closely related to immunotherapeutic resistance are not sensitive to ICI therapy. Thus, there is a need to move beyond TMB and identify specific genetic determinants of the response to ICI therapy. In this study, we established a comprehensive mutation-based gene set across different tumor types to predict the efficacy of ICI therapy.We constructed and validated a mutational signature to predict the prognosis of patients treated with ICI therapy. Then, the underlying immune response landscapes of different subtypes were investigated with multidimensional data.This study included genomic and clinical data for 12,647 patients. An eleven-gene mutation-based gene set was generated to divide patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group in a training cohort (1572 patients with 9 types of cancers who were treated with ICI therapy). Validation was performed in a validation cohort (932 patients with 5 types of cancers who were treated with ICI therapy). Mutations in these 11 genes were associated with a better response to ICI therapy. In addition, the mutation-based gene set was demonstrated to be an independent prognostic factor after ICI therapy. We further explored the role of the immune context in determining the benefits of immunotherapy in 10,143 patients with 33 types of cancers and found distinct immune landscapes for the high- and low-risk groups.The mutation-based gene set developed in this study can be used to reliably predict survival benefit across cancers in patients receiving ICI therapy. The close interplay between the extrinsic and intrinsic immune landscapes in the identified patient subgroups and the subgroups' differing responses to ICI therapy could guide immunotherapy treatment decisions for cancer patients.