Path Planning in Uncertain Ocean Currents using Ensemble Forecasts

We present a path planning framework for marine robots subject to uncertain ocean currents that exploits data from ensemble forecasting, which is a technique for current prediction used in oceanography. Ensemble forecasts represent a distribution of predicted currents as a set of flow fields that are considered to be equally likely. We show that the typical approach of computing the vector-wise mean and variance over this set can yield meaningless results, and propose an alternative approach that considers each flow field in the ensemble simultaneously. Our framework finds a sequence of vehicle controls that minimises the root-mean-square error distance (RMSE) over the full set of ensemble-induced trajectories. The key to achieving computational efficiency in this approach is our use of Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) with a specialised heuristic that improves convergence rate while preserving asymptotic optimality and the anytime property. We demonstrate our results using real ensemble forecasts provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and provide comparisons with the deterministic mean-based approach where we observe RMSE reductions of 92% and 43% in two example scenarios. Further, we argue that the framework can be used in a plan-as-you-go manner where ensemble forecasts change over time. These results help to introduce ensemble forecasts as a viable source of data to improve path planning in marine robotics.