Widespread controls of precipitation sensitivity on drought recovery of global forests

Increases in drought-induced forest mortality have raised worldwide concerns regarding forest drought recovery. Precipitation sensitivity (SPre), the magnitude of forest vegetation growth response to precipitation variation, is believed to strongly influence drought recovery. However, direct evidence is lacking, limiting its use in forecasting forest resilience under climate change. Using multiple remote-sensing datasets, we reveal that SPre is a pivotal factor shaping global forest recovery following extreme drought years, comparable to and even surpassing other well-known factors. In contrast to previous expectations, drought recovery is highest at intermediate SPre, and declines at lower and higher values. Over the past three decades, climate change increases SPre in 56% of global forests, and 30% experience SPre increases associated with a decline in drought recovery—particularly sub-tropical forests. Our results illuminate the widespread importance of SPre in global forests, and highlight incorporating SPre into ecological models to improve predictions of forest resilience. Forest recovery after drought is critical for ecosystem resilience under climate change. The authors show that intermediate precipitation sensitivity maximizes drought recovery, whereas climate-driven increases reduce recovery in many forests.