Strategic choices for middle powers in developing AI capabilities: a case study of Singapore

Artificial intelligence (AI) features prominently in the competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, causing significant concern among Southeast Asian governments. As such, middle powers seeking AI capabilities engage in hedging to secure their interests while maintaining positive relations with others. However, the literature often focuses on why these strategies are favored rather than on how they manifest. Consequently, we propose the 2C1D (Collaboration, Contribution, and Diversification) framework to evaluate the strategic choices of middle powers as they pursue AI capabilities in support of their policy goals. We demonstrate the feasibility of our framework using Singapore as a case study, illustrating how the city-state pursues AI capabilities despite structural and material constraints.