Increased forest coverage will induce more carbon fixation in vegetation than in soil during 2015–2060 in China based on CMIP6

Abstract As components of terrestrial carbon sinks, vegetation and soil carbon pools are important for offsetting CO 2 emissions. However, differences in their carbon sequestration capacities and their responses to global change in the future are poorly understood. This study assessed the changes in vegetation and soil carbon and their ratios and drivers under the SSP126 scenario from 2015 to 2060, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations in China, a major carbon sink region in global terrestrial ecosystems. The content of vegetation carbon (29 ± 1 PgC) was observed to be lower than that of soil carbon (113 ± 23 PgC), and the ratio of vegetation to soil carbon was the highest in the subtropical-tropical monsoon climatic region (0.55 ± 0.12). Moreover, the total stock of vegetation and soil carbon increased by 10 ± 1 PgC during the study period, and the increase in vegetation carbon was 4.31 times that of soil carbon, because the responses of vegetation carbon stocks to increased forest coverage and atmospheric CO 2 were greater than that of soil carbon stocks, especially in the subtropical-tropical and temperate monsoonal climatic regions. However, bare land encroachment on grasslands reduced their increments in the temperate monsoonal and high-cold Tibetan Plateau climatic regions. Furthermore, compared with SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, vegetation and soil carbon sinks can offset a greater amount of carbon emissions in 2060 under the SSP126 scenario, accounting for 53% of all carbon emissions, offsetting 60%–79% of carbon emissions from China under its policy of increasing forest coverage. The study revealed the important role of afforestation in increasing ecosystem carbon stocks, additionally, grassland conservation and deep reductions in carbon emissions cannot be ignored in the future. This study provides a basis for determining the response of vegetation and soil carbon to environmental factors and the realization of net-zero emissions globally.