Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Central Asia From High‐Resolution WRF Simulation Under 2 SSP Scenarios

ABSTRACT The Central Asian region, characterised by its arid climate and fragile ecological environment, is highly sensitive to climate change, necessitating focused research on its future climate. This study utilises one global climate model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) simulation from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to drive the regional climate model WRF for high‐resolution (25 km) simulations within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program. These simulations target future climate changes under both low and high emission scenarios, SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5. The historical simulation (1995–2014) was evaluated, indicating that the WRF model can reproduce better spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in Central Asia compared to the global model, with reduced mean biases and more detailed topography insights, especially in mountainous regions. Future climate projections (2021–2060) indicate a significant temperature increase across Central Asia, correlating with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Under SSP1‐2.6, the average annual temperature rise for the mid‐term future (2041–2060) is projected at 1.47°C, and under SSP5‐8.5, it could reach 1.99°C. Winter warming is most rapid, especially in the central regions (approximately 43°N–47°N), while the southeastern high‐altitude areas experience the biggest warming in summer. The spatial distribution of seasonal warming is very consistent with the reduction of surface albedo. The study also predicts an overall increase in average annual precipitation, with the most significant rise in the southwestern region and a decrease in the northeast. Both SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios project a precipitation increase, which is more pronounced in the mid‐term than the near‐term future (2021–2040). Precipitation is expected to rise in winter across Central Asia, while in summer it shows a varied pattern of increase in the west and decrease in the east, which is probably contributed to the changes of moisture flux.