Horizon scanning for potentially invasive non-native marine species to inform trans-boundary conservation management – Example of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Prevention of non-native species introductions and establishment is essential to avoid adverse impacts of invasive species in marine environments. To identify potential new invasive species and inform non-native species management options for the northern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas), 138 marine species were risk screened for current and future climate conditions using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. Species were risk-ranked as low, medium, high, and very high risk based on separate (calibrated) thresholds for fishes, tunicates, and invertebrates. In the basic screening, 15 fishes, two tunicates, and 26 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk under current climate conditions. Whereas, under future climate conditions, 16 fishes, three tunicates, and 33 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk. Very high risk species included: California scorpionfish Scorpaena guttata, red scorpionfish Scorpaena scrofa, purple whelk Rapana venosa, and Santo Domingo false mussel Mytilopsis sallei under both current and future climates, with weedy scorpionfish Rhinopias frondosa, Papuan scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis papuensis, daggertooth pike conger Muraenesox cinereus, yellowfin scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis neglecta, tassled scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis oxycephalus, brush-clawed shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi, honeycomb oyster Hyotissa hyotis, carinate rock shell Indothais lacera, and Asian green mussel Perna viridis under climate change conditions only. This study provides evidence to inform trans-boundary management plans across the five Gulf of Mexico states to prevent, detect, and respond rapidly to new species arrivals.