The carbon dioxide removal gap

Abstract Rapid emissions reductions, including reductions in deforestation-based land emissions, are the dominant source of global mitigation potential in the coming decades 1 . But in addition, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will have an important role to play. Here we benchmark proposed CDR in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the long-term mitigation strategies against levels in integrated assessment scenarios that meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Our analysis finds a “CDR gap”, i.e. levels proposed by countries fall short of those in virtually all scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C - including in low energy demand scenarios with the most limited CDR scaling and aggressive near-term emissions reductions. Further, we observe that many countries propose to expand land-based removals, but none yet commit to significantly scaling novel methods such as bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar, or direct air carbon capture and storage.