Infectious Confidence: Unraveling the Effects of Confidence Contagion on Overfunding in Equity Crowdfunding

Equity crowdfunding campaign overfunding occurs when a campaign generates funds in excess of the funding goal and has hence been touted as the mark of an extraordinarily successful campaign. However, a novel theoretical lens is needed to comprehend funders’ enthusiasm in their support of such campaigns. Building on the extant literature on contagion effect, we constructed a research model that posits confidence contagion invoked by confidence cues embedded in campaign materials as a key driver of overfunding. Our hypotheses were validated in two complementary empirical studies. In Study 1, we manipulated confidence cues in a controlled experiment to verify the activation of confidence contagion at the individual level. Analytical results indicate that individual funders detect self-confidence traits from confidence cues embedded in campaign materials and assimilate the fundraiser’s confidence via a spontaneous social appraisal mechanism. In turn, confidence contagion drives funders to congregate and invest in campaigns. In Study 2, we analyzed a secondary dataset collected from a leading equity crowdfunding platform to discern how confidence contagion drives overfunding at the collective level. By modeling funding activities as a Hawkes process, we derived three key metrics that govern the emergence and magnitude of funding surges. We demonstrated that these metrics of funding surges mediate the impact of confidence cues on the level of overfunding for equity crowdfunding campaigns. The findings from this study could inform future research seeking to untangle the interdependencies between individual and collective mechanisms underlying crowd phenomena, provide strategic guidance to fundraisers interested in promoting the overfunding of their campaigns, and help crowdfunding platforms predict the potential extent of overfunding and advise fundraisers accordingly.